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What is an Evacuation Time Estimate Study?
What is an Evacuation Time Estimate Study?
What is an Evacuation Time Estimate Study?
On March 1, 2024, the Valley of the Moon Alliance (VOTMA) entered into an agreement with KLD Associates to conduct an independent evacuation time estimate (ETE) study for much of Sonoma Valley, specifically the area bounded to the north by Oakmont and to the south by the northern boundary of Sonoma. The study area will include Oakmont, Kenwood, Glen Ellen, Eldridge, Fetters Hot Springs-Agua Caliente, Boyes Hot Springs, El Verano, and all unincorporated inhabited areas in between these communities and the mountain ranges to the east and west. In addition, the study will consider a "shadow region" surrounding the valley. A shadow region is an area outside the declared evacuation area wherein people may voluntarily evacuate, thus potentially delaying egress of those people in the declared evacuation area. Given the widespread impact of wildfires in recent years, it is highly likely that communities neighboring the valley will also choose to evacuate.
A condensed version of KLD's proposal to conduct the ETE study is available on the FILES page of this website.
Along with ETE studies conducted for numerous cities including Berkeley, Laguna Beach, Ashland (OR), and the Counties of Santa Barbara and Santa Cruz, KLD Associates also recently completed an evacuation study for Oakmont Village. The Oakmont Village study report is available on the FILES page of this website.
With a focus on wildfires, the ETE study will determine how long it could take to evacuate the valley under various circumstances and will explore the sensitivity of ETE to numerous factors including, but not limited to, the following:
- the number of evacuating vehicles per household
- police performing traffic control at critical intersections
- the impact of development and resulting increased population
- the mobilization time or time to prepare to evacuate, based in part on a demographic survey of residents
With respect to assessing the impact of development and resulting increased population (residents and visitors), the study, which is anticipated to take six months and cost approximately $85,000, will consider the Sonoma Developmental Center, Hanna Center, Elnoka and other proposed and foreseeable developments in the study area.
First and foremost, the ETE study is about public safety. The study seeks to understand the magnitude of the wildfire evacuation problems valley residents and visitors will face should these large-scale developments proceed as outlined in project applications. The study does not seek to solve these problems. However, data from the ETE will be widely shared, and it is our hope that County officials and fire professionals will use it to enhance public safety by updating evacuation protocols and plans as well as looking to the study for guidance regarding local development.
Grassroots fundraising is necessary to make this study a reality. The ETE Task Force (Roger Peters, Kathy Pons, Kevin Padian, Bean Anderson, and Alice Horowitz) is committed to working closely with KLD and the people of Sonoma Valley to ensure accurate data-based results.
SAFE Study Task Force Manifesto
What is an Evacuation Time Estimate Study?
What is an Evacuation Time Estimate Study?
CLICK HERE to watch 2017 footage of cars trying to flee fires on Arnold Drive.
- Citizens groups in the Sonoma Valley are commissioning a professional study of the factors that contribute, and will contribute in future, to the effects of population, demographics, geography, traffic, and road structures and conditions on the ability to evacuate in case of emergency.
- This study is independent of and different from the work on some of these factors commissioned by Sonoma County as part of its assessment of future development of the SDC facilities.
- This study will assess data and evidence using approaches not used by the SDC’s EIR.
- This is not a “traffic study,” which would assess normal loads and circulation patterns during rush hours, weekends, and so on. It is an emergency evacuation study, which assesses the ability of roads to handle traffic that would develop in case of an emergency.
- This study will not develop any evacuation plans; that is the purview of Police and Fire.
- The study will use actual data to generate its analysis. It will measure the sizes, directions, and features of local roads; assess the traffic that road segments can bear between pinch points and signs/signals; analyze the demographics of housing and vehicles along main roads as well as their tributaries; and analyze the needs and impacts of schools, hospitals, and care facilities. It will model different fire direction scenarios and model inclusion of proposed large scale developments in the study area. For each scenario, it will produce Evacuation Time Estimates and an assessment of potentially problematic points as well as suggestions for their alleviation.
- We recognize that several substantial housing and commercial developments are being planned for the Sonoma Valley. We recognize the need for additional housing in the area, especially low- and middle-income housing. We support that growth, but we want a realistic assessment of the roadway capacity required to handle emergency evacuation safely and efficiently. The limitations of the existing road system for emergency evacuation must be understood and addressed as part of accommodating that growth.
- The results generated by the study will be shared with the public when the study is completed.
Click on the button below to read a similar study of Oakmont Village conducted by KLD Associates.
The wildland urban interface is where we live
Cal Fire Fire Hazard Severity Zones Maps
Cal Fire Fire Hazard Severity Zones Maps
Cal Fire Fire Hazard Severity Zones Maps
Public Resources Code 4201-4204 directs the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) to map fire hazard within State Responsibility Areas (SRA) based on fuel loading, slope, fire weather, and other relevant factors present, including areas where winds have been identified by the department as a major cause of wildfire spread. These zones, referred to as Fire Hazard Severity Zones (FHSZ), classify a wildland zone as Moderate, High, or Very High fire hazard based on the average hazard across the area included in the zone.
Yellow = Moderate
Tan = High
Red = Very High
Gray = Outside State Responsibility Area
Click on the button below to access interactive Cal Fire maps.
SAFE Study Area
Cal Fire Fire Hazard Severity Zones Maps
Cal Fire Fire Hazard Severity Zones Maps
The study area includes Oakmont, Kenwood, Glen Ellen, Eldridge, Fetters Hot Springs-Agua Caliente, Boyes Hot Springs, El Verano, and all unincorporated inhabited areas in between these communities and the mountain ranges to the east and west. In addition, the study will consider a "shadow region" at both ends of the valley. A shadow region is an area outside the declared evacuation area wherein people may voluntarily evacuate, thus potentially delaying egress of those people in the declared evacuation area. Given the widespread impact of wildfires in recent years, it is highly likely that communities neighboring the valley will also choose to evacuate.
A Google Earth-based map of the study area and shadow region is available on the FILES page of this website.
Click on the button below to learn more about living in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI).
Important points to consider
We need accurate data on which to base updated evacuation plans.
We need accurate data on which to base updated evacuation plans.
We need accurate data on which to base updated evacuation plans.
Wildfire evacuation is a time of panic and fear during which chaos can easily ensue. CalFire warns that evacuations are complex, dire situations that do not conform to standard traffic evaluation. Accidents and abandonment of vehicles were key factors in Paradise (a town that had PLANNED and practiced for evacuation). However, it appears Paradise practiced for evacuating from traditional smaller, fires. Does Sonoma County’s evacuation plan for Sonoma Valley model for fast-moving wind-driven fires? Does it model for a wind-driven firestorm moving from west to east or only from east to west (as Sonoma Valley wildfires have historically moved)? Does it model for a wildfire starting on Sonoma Mountain?
We need accurate data to inform responsible planning.
We need accurate data on which to base updated evacuation plans.
We need accurate data on which to base updated evacuation plans.
Sonoma County's evacuation plan is based on the theory that residents and tourists will evacuate, as requested, by zone. Tourists do not know the roads and will evacuate immediately, adding to the chaos, and tourists might not have immediate access to transportation. Waiting until your zone is called goes against human nature; patiently waiting until your zone is called increases the potential danger and potentially puts you at the back of the congested queue on the evacuation route. Is Sonoma County's evacuation plan based on wishful thinking as opposed to common sense? Note: three sizable new hotels are being planned for the SDC, Hanna, and Paul's Field development projects. The distance from the SDC to Paul's Field is approximately 5 miles.
Hope for the best and be prepared for the worst.
We need accurate data on which to base updated evacuation plans.
Hope for the best and be prepared for the worst.
Safe evacuation relies on time: both 1) lead time (influenced by the speed of the fire and the amount of advanced evacuation warning); and 2) travel time (based on congestion, downed trees, accidents and stall-outs along the evacuation routes, and the distance needed to travel to reach safety). Wind-driven firestorms significantly reduce lead time, and panicked people increase travel time along evacuation routes. The fast-moving 2020 Glass Fire provided only about 1 hour of advanced notice, and Highway 12 was essentially a parking lot as many zones evacuated simultaneously. Are we to believe adding thousands more cars into the mix will not significantly hamper our ability to safely and swiftly evacuate during a wind-driven wildfire?
Fire is a recurring phenomenon in sonoma county
Click on the button below for a digital map of Sonoma County wildfires of 5,000 acres or more beginning in 1944.
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Where are we headed?
On March 1, 2024, VOTMA entered into an agreement with KLD Associates to conduct an independent evacuation time estimate (ETE) study for much of Sonoma Valley. An anonymous survey of evacuation needs and behavior is now available. Click on the button below to learn more about the Sonoma Area Fire Evacuation (SAFE) Study.